Monday, January 27, 2020

Thoughts heading into the first Dem primaries

Was just looking at 538.com for basically the first time since 2016. Here's something interesting that I noticed.
The first four primaries are Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Sanders is projected to win Iowa, NH, and Nevada, while Biden is projected to win S. Carolina.
Then comes Super Tuesday. Sanders is the projected winner in California, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Colorado. Maine, and Vermont, while Biden is projected in Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Alabama, Arkansas, and Utah.
Okay, so let's divide these states into three groups: reliable blue, battleground, and reliable red:
  • In reliable blue states, Sanders is favored in 8 and Biden in 0.
  • In battleground states, Sanders is favored in 1 and Biden in 2.
  • In reliable red states, Biden is favored in 7 and Sanders in 0.
I think the people who view Biden as more "electable" figure that any Dem will carry the reliable blue states and thus someone like Biden gives them a better shot at the battlegrounds or even flipping a reliable red.
I don't personally agree with that; partly I don't think the reliable blue states can be taken for granted with a corporate Dem (case in point: DT won Pennsylvania in 2016) and partly because I think these numbers are skewed because the progressive vote is being split three different ways right now. But I did think it was interesting and worth pointing out.

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